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Final Four: 2015 Quant Fact Predictions

Quant Fact Predictions for the 2015 Final Four Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Quant Fact Predictions for the 2015 Final Four
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports


The NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four is getting close to tipping off, so here are our Final Four March Madness predictions.  Our readers know that for the "Who Will Win" series of articles, we quantify factors related to sports psychology to study angles that may be overlooked or undervalued by many sports analysts.  Since our book came out on "Who Will Win the Big Game?" -- our published predictions have been correct 62% of the time (across all major sports), often picking underdogs.  

For men's college basketball, where we have been particularly successful (link to New York Times articles), we again use championship factors and statistics related to: 

 - Big game experience (Final Four appearances over the past several years), 

- Leadership (All-Americans), 

- Consistency (scoring statistics), and 

- Defense.

Our research has shown that even at the highest level of sports, championships come down to executing at a high level, while minimizing errors.  In particular, the fundamentals and big game experience play a bigger role than sports fans expect.   

In the Duke versus Michigan State semifinal, the championship factors favor Duke 3-1.  Michigan State has a better defense in terms of field-goal percentage yielded, but Duke takes other factors such as leadership on the court, and consistency.  

In the other semifinal match-up, we were surprised to see Kentucky barely edge Wisconsin 3-2 in the championship traits.  Still, the quant facts prefer the Kentucky Wildcats due to their dominating defense and height.  

Our quant facts (sometimes published in the New York Times), have done particularly well in the NCAA Men's Tournament and it will be interesting to see if the streak continues.    

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Carlton Chin is a fund manager, MIT-trained quantitative analyst, and co-author of “Who Will Win the Big Game?" He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, and ESPN -- and worked with the Sacramento Kings on the 2014 NBA Draft.  Dr. Jay Granat is the co-author of the "Who Will Win" book and owner of StayInTheZone.com.    

 




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