The Super Bowl is this coming Sunday, February 5, 2017. Do you have your Square Pool box yet? If you are participating in a square pool (where only the last digit for each team counts), you are randomly assigned a digit for each team, such as New England 7, and Atlanta 0. Many fans have an idea of what numbers are “good.” Here, we compute Super Bowl Square Pool probabilities by quarter, based on recent historical results.
Most people prefer numbers like 7, 3, and 0 due to the key numbers associated with touchdowns and field goals. But how often do those numbers hit? And what about the 4, 6, or 1? A few years ago, we took a look at the probabilities of the digits winning at the end of each quarter – based on every Super Bowl ever played. The results were originally published by the New York Times in their Super Bowl Sunday spread several years ago (full link below):
This year, we refreshed the results to reflect the NFL’s adoption of the two-point conversion since 1994. We used every Super Bowl – along with Conference Championship games – since 1994. In addition, we computed the probabilities at the end of each quarter. The results are also informed by which team is favored to win the game. The impact of longer distance extra points, since 2015, is trickling into the data.
So, what numbers are good?
For the team that is favored (New England, this year), the best numbers to have for the final score are: 1, 4, 7, and 3, in this order. These numbers each have about a 13% to 16% chance of hitting -- for the final score, based on our data sample.
The best numbers for the underdog’s final score (Atlanta) are 4, 7 and 0 – in that order.
The best overall numbers, to win at the end of any quarter – favorite or underdog – are 0, 7, 4, and 3, as expected.
The 0, 3, and 7 are particularly good to have at the end of the first quarter and first half.
By the end of the game, the 4 and 7 are the best.
The worst numbers are the 2 and 5, but by the end of the game, every number has won in our data set, since 1994.
Look up your numbers in the charts below to find the percentage of your numbers hitting, for each quarter.
Square Pool Odds - First Quarter
Square Pool Odds - Halftime
Square Pool Odds - Third Quarter
Square Pool Odds - Final Score
Note that if there is a 0.0% in a given square, it does not mean that this event is impossible. It just means that during our sample size since 1994, that set of numbers has not occurred for the given quarter. Please keep an eye out for our “Who Will Win” analysis for this year’s Super Bowl. Enjoy the game!
Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager and quantitative researcher focused on the financial markets and sports analytics. He has been quoted by the New York Times and Wall St. Journal and has worked on sports analytics with sports organizations, including Draft 3.0 with the Sacramento Kings.
Don La Fronz, CFP, is a financial advisor and originated the idea for this article.