Mets Meter: 2015 World Series Odds (Updated 11/1/15)

Will the Mets win the World Series? Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
Will the Mets win the World Series?
Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

I usually let the numbers do the talking -- and as a life-long New York Mets fan, several friends and family members have asked me, "What are the odds that the Mets win the World Series?"  The Mets' odds took a big dive during that infamous Utley-Tejada incident / inning -- but bounced back strongly with the big Game Three win (of the LAD-NYM series).   

11/1/15 11:20pm: Harvey and Familia couldn't quite close the game out, so we go to extra innings.  Mets WS odds dip to 12% with this game now a tossup.  

11/1/15 10:55pm: The Mets nurse a 2-0 lead with Harvey still on the mound in the top of the 9th.  The Mets are now heavy favorites in this game and have increased their WS odds to 24%

11/1/15, 9:15pm: The Mets are clinging to a 1-0 lead in the 3rd inning and have increased their odds of winning the World Series from 17% before Game 5 started -- to 20%.   

10/31/15 11:10pm: The Mets cannot hold the lead -- and are suddenly behind 5-3 in the 8th inning.  Grim times...  and the WS odds dip to 18%.   

10/31/15: 9pm: Happy Halloween!  Hopefully the Mets are putting some fear into the Royals.  The Mets took a 2-0 lead in the 3rd inning.  The Mets are roughly 3/4 to win the game -- and back up to 41% to win the World Series.   

10/30/15: 10:38pm:  The Mets take a commanding 8-3 lead in the sixth inning.  The Mets are now back up to 32% to win the World Series!   

10/30/15: 9:20pm: In a see-saw Game Three, the Mets regain the lead 4-3 in the third inning.  The Mets WS odds are 24% (game odds are roughly 2/3).  

10/28/15 10:50pm: The Mets now trail 7-1 in the 8th inning.  WS odds have now dipped to 23%.  

10/28/15 9:55pm: The Mets' early 1-0 lead has evaporated with the Royals scoring 4 runs in the fifth inning.  The Mets' WS odds have dropped to 26% with sad prospects of about 12% for this game.  

10/28/15 1:19am: The Mets and Colon had trouble each of the past three extra innings and finally succumbed, losing Game 1 by a score of 5-4 in 14 innings.  The Mets' odds of winning the World Series are now 36%.  

10/27/15 11:34pm: Familia blows his first save since July -- and we go to extra innings.  Maybe the Mets want to give Daniel Murphy another shot at a homerun in consecutive games.  Anyone's game now, so we are at 50% once again.  

10/27/15 11pm: The Mets regain the lead in the top of the 8th, so the Mets are now up to about 80% to win the game and 59% to win the World Series!  This has been a great game, with the Mets taking a 3-1 lead in the 6th, only to see the Royals tie it against Harvey in the bottom of the 6th.  

10/27/15: 9:40pm: The Mets take a 2-1 lead and entering the bottom of the 5th, are now 54% to win the World Series.  (The Royals still have the bottom of the inning, so the Mets are now quite at 55% like the Royals were).  

10/27/15 9:30pm: The Mets tie the game and are back to 50/50 (50% to win the game and 50% for the World Series)!  

10/27/15 8:38pm: The Mets trail early in game 1 of the World Series.  The World Series odds are now 45% (and game odds are roughly 35%).  

10/26/15: Notwithstanding my "Who Will Win the 2015 World Series" article, I am listing the Mets' odds of winning the World Series at 50%.  I will update the "Mets Meter" odds when I can during big moments of the World Series.  Mets fans fan relive the 2015 playoffs by checking out the article (reverse chronological order, below).   

10/23/15: The Mets are in the World Series and face the winner of the Toronto-KC series.  The Mets' odds of winning the World Series is currently 49%.

10/21/15 at 8:55pm: The Mets now lead 6-0 in the second inning and look like they will make it to the World Series.  On the other hand, Toronto won today and tightened their series to 3-2 in favor of KC.  As a result, the Mets' WS odds actually decreased to 46%! 

10/20/15 at 11:11pm: With the Mets up three games to none, and KC up 3-1, the Mets odds to win the World Series is now 50%.  Five more wins for the Mets and their fans!  

10/19/15: With both the AL and NL Championship Series at 2-0 (for the Mets and Royals, respectively), we currently estimate the Mets' odds of winning the World Series at 42%.  

8:38pm 10/18: Daniel Murphy's home run put the Mets up 3-0 in game 2 -- and has lifted the odds of the Mets winning the World Series to 38%.  This will probably be the last update until after the game.  

Before Game 2 of the NLCS 10/18: Our model currently has the Mets at about a 1 in 3 (33%) chance of winning the 2015 World Series.  

10:20pm 10/17: Leading 3-1 in the bottom of the 7th inning, the Mets are about 90% to win game 1 of the series.  This increases the "Mets Meter" (odds of winning the World Series) to 32%.

9:05pm 10/17: With a 1-0 lead in the 4th inning, the Mets WS odds are now 30%.  They are roughly 70% to win game 1 of the NLCS.  

10/17 Pre-game Update: With KC taking a two-games-to-none lead over Toronto in the ALCS, the Mets WS odds rise to 28%.   

11:21pm ET 10/15: Mets in the NL Championship series!  My models currently have the Mets at 26% to win the WS.   

10:44pm ET 10/15: With the game winding down, and the Mets clinging to a one-run lead, the Mets WS odds are inching up to 20%.  With six outs to go, the Mets' odds of winning this game are now close to 80%.  

10:12pm ET 10/15: Murphy HR puts the Mets up 3-2, increasing the Mets WS odds to 17%.  We are going to the bottom of the 6th inning.    

9:30pm ET 10/15: Mets tie the game 2-2; it is now the middle of the 4th inning.  Mets WS odds back to 12%.  As a side note, the previous inning's double-play to get the Mets out of the inning helped the Mets' chances of winning this game by about 12%!!  Before that play, the Dodgers were on the verge of expanding their lead, but the DP kept the Mets at about 35% to win the game.  

8:36pm ET 10/15: The Dodgers storm right back and take a 2-1 lead.  The Mets WS odds slump to 9%.  

8:18pm ET 10/15: Mets take 1-0 lead in top of the first! Mets World Series odds jump to 17%.  

With Toronto and KC both advancing, the Mets' World Series odds drop to 11%.  The winner of the LAD-Mets series will jump to a 26% chance of winning the World Series.  (updated 10/15 at 6am ET)

The LAD-NYM series is now tied 2 games apiece.  Mets odds to win the World Series is 12%.  (updated 11pm ET, 10/13.)

Game 4; top of 9th; Mets trail 3-1.  Mets odds to win World Series is now 13% (10:45pm ET, 10/13)

Dodgers lead 3-0 in Game 4 (3rd inning); Mets odds now 14% to win the World Series.  (9pm, 10/13) 

With a two-games-to-one lead in the series, the Mets currently have a 19% chance of winning the World Series.  (updated at 7:11pm on 10/13)

I will update this post -- and update the odds -- whenever I can.  Let's Go Mets!

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Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager, MIT-trained quantitative analyst, and co-author of “Who Will Win the Big Game?" He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, and ESPN -- and worked with the Sacramento Kings on the 2014 NBA Draft